The Role of the Government's Development Budget on Afghanistan's Economic Growth over the Years (2003 to 2018)

This study aims to investigate the effective impact of the development budget on the country's economic growth, the factors affecting Afghanistan's economic growth and the weight of the development budget in the country's long-term growth. To improve the work and plan of government policies, the type of research is practical. In this research, the VAR time series model and the conventional least-squares method have been used and the CUSUM test and other tests have been used to measure the stability of the model. According to the VAR time series model, a positive shock in the development budget has increased the level of economic growth (GDP) in the second period, the third period decreased and it has been relatively stable since the fourth and fifth periods, and the seventh period is increasing, as well as fluctuating sharply in the following periods. Also, a positive shock in the development budget has reduced the same variable in the third period and increased almost from the fourth period onwards to the fifth period, decreased in the sixth period, increased in the seventh period, decreased again and then increased in the ninth period. Thus, the scale of positive shocks in economic growth reduces the variable development budget to less than the second year, decreases in the third period, increases to the sixth period, and decreases in the seventh period and finally takes the upward trend. Also, with a positive shock in economic growth, the same variable decreases in the second period and follows the normal change trend after the fourth period. Also, a positive shock in the development budget affects the variables of the non-optional development budget in this country, both in the short- and long-term. However, the optional development budget variable is less in the short-term, but in the long-term, it is relatively relative, and the impact of shocks in both the short- and long-term has statistical validity and fluctuating movements. The results of the regression show that the relationship between development budget variables and economic growth has been significant.